Why Selling Crypto Now Is a Mistake: The Liquidity Pivot Everyone’s Missing

The Market Panic That Doesn’t Add Up

Bitcoin recently dipped below $100,000, touching lows around $98K, and fear has spread fast. Altcoins followed suit, and social feeds are filled with panic. But here’s the truth — this is not the time to sell. In fact, this is one of the most asymmetric buying opportunities we’ve seen in years.

Despite what the four-year cycle crowd believes, the data says otherwise. Liquidity indicators, central bank policy, and monetary expansion all suggest we are still in a macro uptrend — and that the worst move right now would be capitulation.

Why Now Is the WORST Time to Sell Your Crypto

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The 50-Week Simple Moving Average Signal

The 50-week SMA has always been a key level for Bitcoin, acting as a magnet for price before major rebounds.
At the time of writing, BTC sits just below that moving average — around $102,970. Historically, when Bitcoin first touches this level, it’s been a buy signal, not a sell.

If you zoom out, every dip to this range during prior cycles preceded strong reversals. It’s also no coincidence that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index just hit 23 (extreme fear). In markets, when sentiment breaks, opportunity forms.

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

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Liquidity Is the Real Cycle

Forget the halving for a second. The real driver of every crypto bull and bear market is global liquidity — specifically, the M2 money supply and central bank balance sheets.

As the Federal Reserve pauses QT (Quantitative Tightening) and begins stealth QE, liquidity is quietly returning to the system. This liquidity, historically, flows into risk assets — stocks, crypto, and especially altcoins.

Key signals:

• 🏦 Reverse repo facility has been fully drained — banks have deployed their idle cash.

• 💵 Treasury General Account (TGA) is bloated from tax revenue during the government shutdown and will release liquidity once the shutdown ends.

• 📉 Fed balance sheet contraction ends December 1, with reinvestment into Treasuries — the same pattern as the 2019 “not-QE” cycle that kicked off the next rally.

When these three pillars align, global liquidity expands — and altcoins rally hard. Every historical liquidity bottom has coincided with an altcoin market-cap uptrend.

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The Altcoin Case: Liquidity Favors Risk

Altcoin performance tracks central-bank liquidity almost tick-for-tick. As liquidity tightens, dominance shifts toward Bitcoin. As liquidity expands, altcoins outperform.

The Global Liquidity Index already mirrors prior bottoms. Combine that with easing from the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and you have the perfect setup for renewed altcoin strength.

Ethereum’s relative strength is the canary in the coal mine — ETH/BTC has been trending up for six months. Historically, every ETH uptrend leads alt-season. It’s happening again.

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Fundamentals Over Fear

While the crowd panics, smart money watches liquidity. Bitcoin remains in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, and gold — Bitcoin’s closest macro analog — has been leading for months.
The M2 money supply and gold correlation show that Bitcoin lags these indicators by about 10–12 weeks. That suggests the next move is up, not down.

If you sell now, you’re betting against liquidity, history, and logic. Even if the four-year cycle were the only thing that mattered, we’re only months away from the potential top — meaning it’s too early to exit.

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My Portfolio & Trading Outlook

After the sharp flush in October, I’ve consolidated into five core positions:
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and BNB.
These remain the most structurally sound assets in crypto.

On the trading side, I’m deploying swing bots and narrative plays on ASTR, TAO (Bittensor), and VIRTUAL — all positioned to benefit from the coming AI and liquidity narrative.

If volatility spikes, bots accumulate low and sell high, but the main thesis is simple: don’t fight the liquidity cycle.

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The Bottom Line

We are weeks away from one of the most significant liquidity pivots in years.

• Fed QT pause → December 1

• Stealth QE begins

• Government shutdown ending → TGA drains → liquidity injection

• Altcoins poised for rotation

Selling now — before these catalysts play out — makes no sense.
When global liquidity turns, it turns fast. History shows that those who sold in fear missed the parabolic leg that followed.

Stay patient. Hold conviction. The next wave is coming.